Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD falls further as Brexit worries increase

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | gbpusd

Levels dropping like flies

The Brexit poll came out more in favor of an exit and that started the fall in the pair.  Since then, the price has taken out technical "levels" including the 200 hour MA, trend line support, the 50% retracement and most recently, the 100 bar MA on the 4 hour chart.  

The next stop is the 61.8% and the 200 bar MA on the 4 hour chart at the 1.4487 level.  

The pair has had an up and down session that has covered 224 pips from the high to the low.  That may imply that the market may tire as traders who have benefited from the fall, take profit. With the MA and 61.8% at the same level a final push should see buyers leaning against the area.

Going forward what can we expect?

It is really hard to predict as the polls will play a vital role and as we have seen, they can be just as volatile as the market.  So my advise is to continue to lean against simple levels that make sense.  For example, the 100 hour MA (blue smooth line at 1.4651 currently - see chart above), was technically a level to lean against.  Don't force trades at levels that are away from a technical level you are eyeing.  

You do need to protect yourself against poll results that can come out randomly.  If that risk is too great, look elsewhere to trade.  

If you trust your tools and are right, that can potentially lead to move in your favor. If it goes against you, get out on the break of your level in the opposite direction. 
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