The data today was certainly not encouraging

The GBPUSD has rebounded from what has remained support in trading this week at the 1.4232-58 area. The price action going back to Feb 22 has seen a number of swing lows bounce off this area. Yes, the price did venture below earlier in this week (on Wednesday), but that look-see was short lived (only lasted about an hour). More recently, the price has not exactly bounced like the other swing lows from March, but it continues to hold the line.

Today, the market was looking for that bounce, but the data out of the UK was not conducive. Do I see a run higher? It is hard to see but that does not mean we cannot drift higher. If it does, look for sellers against the topside trend line of the triangle/bear pennant that is forming (see chart above). That level comes in at 1.4130 currently. On the downside...well the technical picture down there is pretty clear too. Get below the lower trend line and then the 1.4032 level.

Buyers and sellers are having a mini battle. That battle may have to wait until next week, but the battle lines have been drawn. The advantage remains with the shorts but if the shorts get hurt, it will be on a move above the topside trend line(s). So risk is defined. Risk is limited.