OK so it was quick...

The EURUSD traded above the 1.11500 level for the first time since August 2015. Admittedly, the time above was brief - my high reached 1.15005, it is currently trading at 1.1477 - but it was pierced .

Technically, the pair today has pushed above an area that 4 separate swing highs in 2015 between 1.1435 and 1.1465. This is now key support for the pair. Stay above on a correction and the bulls will still remain in control.

Also broken on the move higher was the The October 2015 high at 1.1494 and a topside trend line at 1.1490.

Can the pair push higher? Traders turned from buyers above 1.1490/94 to leaners against 1.1500, after the 1.1500 break could not be maintained, but be careful for some short covering on a break above. But holding support will be needed and the pair is approaching that support as I type.

On the downside, looking at the 5-minute chart, the midpoint of the days range comes in at 1.1474. The 100 bar MA on the 5-minute chart comes in at 1.1475 currently. On the last correction lower - before push to 1.1500 - that MA held. It will be the closest level on the downside in trading today and that level is being pushed right now. Will the buyers reenter here?

Below that, a move into the 1.1435-65 level will also neutralize the bullishness, with a break back below 1.1435 signalling a failure of the move higher. Look for lower levels should that level be broken (and stay broken).

Where does that next step take the pair on the topside should there be a run back to the upside?

Well, there isn't much above to grasp onto off the daily chart.

  • The Feb 3, 2016 high at 1.1533.
  • The January 21 swing high at 1.1679
  • The August 24 swing high at 1.1711.