Forex technical analysis: US dollar gets mixed up

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | dollar

Crosses in play

The USD is getting mixed up in trading today which is always an indication of the crosses getting mixed up.

A snapshot of the dollar today shows the greenback is stronger vs. the following major currencies:
USDCAD (up 101 pips)
AUDUSD (down 23 pips) 
NZDUSD (down 34 pips)
GBPUSD (down 14 pips)

While the US dollar is weaker vs these major currencies today:
EURUSD (up 36 pips)
USDJPY (down 34 pips)
USDCHF (down 79 pips).

The mixed bag for the greenback can be attributed to the weakness in commodities. The Thomson Reuters CRB index - an index of commodities - is trading at the lowest level going back to 2002 (see chart below).  Earlier Adam pointed out that the price of oil is trading at 6 years lows and is currently below $41 per barrel (down 4% on the day). This is leading to the weakness in the commodity currencies like the AUD, NZD and certainly the CAD which is most closely tied to oil. 

The weakness  vs the EUR, JPY and CHF may be pulled higher by the crosses related to the commodities (i.e, the weakness in the CAD is universal).  It also may be on the expectations that with inflation in the US is likely not on the rise from the commodity front at least, the Fed may put off the tightening expected in September.   Contrary to that idea is Fed's Bullard, who earlier today, said that the Fed does not have to wait for wage inflation.  Of course he is a hawk and does have a tendency to be wrong in his ideas.

As far as the GBP?  The EURGBP has bounced 50% of yesterday;s move lower (at 0.7071 - the price is 0.7069 currently). This has helped keep the pressure on the GBPUSD. 


The Thomson Reuters CRB index is trading at the lowest levels since the 2002 
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