Above 200 hour MA
The USDCAD is buying some time - trading higher and lower in trading today. The Ivey PMI will be released at 10 AM with estimates of 54.0 vs 53.7. The index can whip around (the low for calendar year is 45.4 in January/ the high was 62.30 in May). Oil prices which have been a catalyst for moves this week, are down about -0.40% today at $46.14 (was down about 1% a few minutes ago).
Technically, the pair moved below the 200 hour MA in the London/European morning session on two separate occasions, but quickly rebounded (it fell below in the early Asia-Pacific session as well). That keeps the buyers more in control, but up and down activity makes both sides a bit nervous. On the topside, the 61.8% at 1.31865 and the swing high from Oct 30 at 1.3191 seem to be putting a lid on it. We currently trade in the middle of that extreme.
As mentioned oil prices are down on the day which should be supportive of the pair, but so far there is not a big reaction and the price has moved higher since I started this post.
From a trading perspective though, a move below and staying below the 200 hour MA is essential. Support targets on a break lower include 1.3129 and the 100 hour MA at the 1.3104 level. A move above the 1.3186-90 level opens the upside for a move toward the Oct 29 high at 1.3237, then the high from Oct 28 at 1.3278.