Buyers had their chance above the 100 hour MA.
The USDCAD has been under pressure since last Monday when BOC Wilkin's hinted of a more hawkish stance ahead. That was followed by comments from Poloz on Tuesday. The pair bottomed on Wednesday, corrected tot he 100 hour MA (blue line) and 38.2% on Thursday and held below the falling 100 hour MA on Friday.
Today the buyers had their shot to take more control above the 100 hour MA twice. Each break above, failed. That MA is now risk for shorts. If the price can not trade and stay above that level, there is little reason to be long.
We currently trade at the session lows. The lows from Wednesday at 1.3178 and 1.3164 are the the next targets for the pair. Traders will be looking for a break and a continuation lower now.
Looking at the daily chart, the low from April 2017 is at 1.3223. We are below that level now (bearish). The swing highs in February are at 1.32086-11. We have just moved below those levels. Going back to the hourly chart, that same 1.3208-11 was swing levels last week and today (follow red circles in the chart above). Closer risk can be defined against that level now.
The 1.3152 is the next target (trend line support). Below that level and the 50% of the move up from the April 2016 low comes into play at 1.3126.
