The highs yesterday could not make new move highs/get above 200 day MA
The USDCAD is starting the new session with some weakness. The pair moved below the 100 hour MA in the last hour of trading. That may be liquidity. It may be something more as well.
The thing about the trade yesterday in this pair, the price could not get above the high from Friday. It did move above the Thursday high, but not by much. The 200 day MA is a little bit higher than those 3 peaks (at 1.3252 today). That area is now a strong technical ceiling. Stay below is more bearish. Move above and stops will be triggered. We go higher.
That is one extreme. The other extreme is between the 1.3128-46 area. Looking at the last five or so days, the price has found buyers in this area.
IF the 1.3234 to 1.3252 is the ceiling area. the 1.3128-46 is the floor for the pair. In between is the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart).
The market has a decision to make at this inflection point. Do we head lower and test the 5 day floor, or this 50 or pip correction good enough and we go higher (will likely need help from oil I would think).
For me, the market had a chance to get above that key resistance area above. The buyers could not do it. The buyers turn to sellers. Why not continue and give another look at the floor. If it does head down that way, the 200 hour MA (green line) is rising and will be in play near that level. That will make that floor area even more important for traders. Look for traders to lean against the level on a test but on a break (just like at the 200 day MA above), stops should be triggered.
The lines in the sand are drawn. Let the battle go on.
