Buyers tested, but come in by the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart
The USDJPY broke yesterday, moving above 100 and 200 hour MAs, trend line, 38.2% of the move down from the Jan 27th high. The price stalled just below the next targets at the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart and the 50% of the same move lower.
Today, the price moved above those 2 targets but stalled ahead of the next target at the 61.8% retracement at 113.92. In trading today, getting above the 61.8% and the swing highs from Jan 31 and Feb 1 at 113.96, is the next bullish hurdle.
The good news for the bulls is although the price is below the high and stalled ahead of the next target, the correction lower into the NY opening did also stall against the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (blue line at 113.384). The line is now a key risk level for longs into the Abe/Trump meeting/press conference headlines. Stay above is more bullish.
Looking at the daily chart below, the price fell below the 38.2% of the move up from the November election low at 111.98 but could not gather much downside momentum after that break. The correction off the low this week, has corrected about 230 pips off the lows, BUT still remains below the 38.2% of the move down from the January high. That level comes in at 114.26. If the buyers stay in control, that is the minimal corrective target of the move down this year. A more robust correction would target the 50% at 115.09.
The stock market will be watching and how that performs will be eyed for buyers and sellers. Stocks go up, the USDJPY should go up. Stocks go down, the USDJPY should go down. In pre-market trading the S&P futures are up 3.75 points. The Nasdaq futures are up 7.75 points and the Dow futures are up about 40 points. Bond yields - another barometer for USDJPY - are higher witht he 10 year up about 3 bps to 2.4233%. Yesterday it fell to a low 2.32% before staging a rebound back higher (helped by Trumps "phenomenal tax changes" comment).