Forex technical analysis: USDJPY in its own box

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | usdjpy

Triangle. Box.  Geometric patterns rule the pair

It is no secret. The USDJPY is stuck. If I were to look at the daily chart and ignore two false breaks, the pair remains within an ever narrowing triangle. with 120.55 on the topside, and 119.42 below.  Friday, the pair broke lower after the important US employment report, but moved back above the  trend line and squeezed the shorts higher into the week's close. 

Today the pair has remained mainly above the closing level from Friday (the low today is 119.86. My close is at 119.88). but below the topside trend line (at 120.55 (the high was just reached at 120.36).  The range is only 49 pips (the average over the last 22 trading days is 106 pips). So there is room to roam in the afternoon still.  Just saying. 

Taking a broader look at the daily chart, the pair is also trading within a box. That box has a high at 121.227 and a low at 118.51 (see green box in the chart above). The pair has been within the confines of the box since. September 2nd.

At some point, there will be a break and run.  The break will start with the triangle, extend to the box and then the traders can work on other targets (for which there will be more including the 123.83-91, and 100 day MA at the 122.42 on the topside,and 118.22, and 117.957 on the downside.  

Any trading clues from the shorter chart?  

Looking at the 5 minute chart below, the price for the USDJPY has been able to find support against the 100 bar moving average and lower trendline in the last hour or so trading.  So the pair is tracking higher with more of a bullish bias.   To keep the buyers content, staying above that trend line/ MA should be the risk defining level for them (risk for longs).  

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