On Friday there were a few closes below but only by a pip or two
The USDJPY gapped higher on the opening and in the process moved back above the old trend line. That line was broken on Wednesday/Thursday but moved back below on Thursday and held resistance against that line on Friday (see red circled numbers). The hgih reached 112.95 but could not get above the natural resistance at the 113.00 level.
The break back above that line failed and the closes have been below that line since the failure.
The fall lower did push below the 100 hour MA (currently at 112.468 and moving higher). The dip below that MA was not unlike the dips on Friday where the price fell below the line, but could not sustain momentum (there were 3 closing hourly bars below the MA line but each was only by a pip or two).
So sellers are not really in love with life below the 100 hour MA....at least yet. That MA will be a key barometer for bullish/bearish going forward. Getting and staying (closing) below that line will be a key clue. On a move lower, the trend lines and 200 hour MA will also be eyed at 112.33, 112.11 and 111.97 (200 hour MA).
ON the topside, that old trend line comes in at 112.89 currently. That and 113.00-04 are upside hurdles to get to and through before the pair runs into the 100 day MA at 113.138.
If the 100 hour MA is key support, the first test of the 100 day MA since the break below on March 17th should solicit some selling on a test.
