The pair made a break higher before Powell, but has retraced back down
The USDJPY made a break above the 100 hour MA before Powell and peaked at 107.224 right after the headlines. However, the weaker data and perhaps some feelings of the status quo has sent the price back down.
The 100 hour MA was a ceiling on Monday and in the early hours of the day's trading in the Asian Pacific trading. In the London session the price waffled around the level before the pre-Powell push higher.
The 100 hour MA comes in at 107.009. The price did dip below that line post-Powell/data (106.945 is the low), but we currently trade back above. Bulls are trying to keep the bias in their favor. Technically, staying above and pushing away from the 100 hour MA would do it. A move below, and some of the bullishness is lost. PS the holding of the 200 hour MA (the green line in the chart above), is also a little supportive for the bulls.
Where does the push have to take the price to give buyers more confidence?
Looking at the hourly chart above, the trend line off the Feb 8 high comes in at 107.16. The 50% of the move down from last week's high comes in at 107.13. Moving above - and staying above - would be more bullish. I know with support at 107.00 and resistance at 107.16, that is not a lot of room but the confined support resistance range is defining the bias. Right now, it is a little bullish but that break above would give buyers more confidence, while a move back below the 107.00 would do the opposite and could see another test of the 200 hour MA below instead (green line in the chart above).