Extends above the 200 day MA but backs off
The GBPUSD has been able to move back above the 200 day MA in a push higher as London/Europe day comes to an end before the FOMC decision. The move higher was helped by a shift in the technical bias.
Looking at the hourly chart, technically at the lows, the price did hold support at bottom-side trend line today, and moved above trend line resistance at the 1.5304. That got the ball rolling higher. A move above the 200 day MA is not that shocking but it helps. The price has traded above and below this MA over the last 4 trading days. Earlier this month, the price traded above and below over 7 straight days. The MA seems to be a gather place. It says the market is unsure.
The pair moved above the 200 day MA, and tested the 100 hour MA. Seller have reentered (or buying stopped) and the price has moved back lower. Just position squaring before the decision (or so it seems).
What to look for after the decision?
Well, the price should move away from the 200 day MA, but it might be dependent on a surprise or shift in the Fed stance. Technically, on a move higher (the Fed abandons talk of liftoff), the 1.5382-86 will be eyed as a key area to get and stay above. The highs from October 9 and 13th came in against this area. The price decline on the 22nd and 23rd stalled around this area, and the high from Monday stalled against this level (see yellow area).
On the downside, a move below the lower trend line(s) should solicit more selling momentum going forward (at 1.5301 and 1.5271 respectively).
Be aware that if the Fed keeps the status quo ("monitoring global and inflation, etc") the chance are for up and down, bar room fight volatility.
