The 3rd peek below the moving average fails
The GBPUSD - like the EURUSD trades between its 100 hour moving average above at 1.30674 and its 200 hour moving average below at 1.30056 - for the most part.
The difference is that on Monday and again today , the price dipped below the 200 hour moving average, only to run out of steam fairly quickly. On Monday, the moving average is broken on 2 separate occasions and failed. Today, the price peek below the moving average line briefly, and rebounded back to the upside.
For traders, the moving average lines are guidelines for bullish and bearish, but they also give traders clues as to the "markets" enthusiasm about a directional move.
Sometimes, traders may try to make a break, only to find there is not a whole lot of support. It's kinda like putting your toe in the water to test the waters temperature. The toe or even foot may go in, but the whole body won't be ready. It happens. It makes trading frustrating at times, but it also give traders clues that could lead to a counter break trade as well. Traders who bought the failures both yesterday and today benefited from trading the failed breaks.
On the topside, although the pair remains below its 100 hour moving average at 1.30674 (blue line), the price has not burned the edges of that MA line (the high reached 1.3758 today). There is a reluctance there as well.
So the battle continues with casualties on both sides. However, what we know is at some point, there will be a break and run away from this neutral area. In between sits the 50% retracement at 1.30157. An old trendline cuts across there as well. Stay above may be a clue and tilt the bias more to the upside in intraday trading.
