GBPUSD gets close to the August lows ahead of the Fed decision

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | gbpusd

What levels are in play through the FOMC decision

The GBPUSD moved to a low price today at 1.36153. That was just above the August 19 low of 1.36016. The July low came in at 1.3571. Those levels will be targets on further selling through the FOMC decision today.   

What levels are in play through the FOMC decision
Looking at the daily chart above, the pair reached it's low for the year back in early January at 1.34498. 

If the price is going lower from here, getting below the swing area between 1.3571 to 1.36016 is the first steps. From there, it opens the door for a run toward the January 18 low at 1.3514 followed by the January 11 low at 1.34498.

On the topside in 2021, the pair stalled with three separate highs between 1.4233 and 1.42493. The price action above 1.4000 up to 1.4249 was the higher extreme. 

The price moved below the 1.4000 level back in June and has been able to stay below that level since that time.  Bearish.

In June, July and early August, the price traded above and below its 100 day moving average (blue line currently at 1.39013). However in the month of September, the high price stalled just near that moving average level tilting the bias more to the downside and giving the sellers more control. Bearish.

Drilling to the hourly chart below, the high against the 100 day moving average (blue overlaid line) back on September 14th was quickly rejected, and the price started to rotate back to the downside. On September 16, there was a final test of its 100 hour moving average before rotating lower. Bearish.  

Last Friday, the pair tried to approach the 200 hour moving average (green line) but found early sellers against that level and again rotated lower.  Bearish.

The subsequent move lower has seen the price move below a swing level between 1.36403 and 1.36537. 

Getting above that area would give the dip buyers some hope. However, if the buyers are to take more control, getting above the swing high from yesterday and the 1.3700 level followed by the falling 100 hour moving average at 1.37066, would be needed to give the buyers more comfort. 

Absent that and sellers remain in more in control and an ultimate move toward the swing lows from the daily chart for 2021 would be the path of least resistance.

GBPUSD on the hourly chart

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