Trend line and swing area in the way
The GBPUSD is higher on the day but at the highs, the pair failed.
The fail was above the topside trend line (currently at 1.2522), and a swing area going back to April 16, 17 and then on Tuesday at 1.25137 to 1.25215. That failure (and some downward stock pressure which sent flows to the dollar for a while), sent the price back lower. The low extended to 1.2475 (from the day high at 1.2528). The price currently trades at 1.2508.
What now?
The inability to move above the swing area and the topside trend line could be enough to swing the bias from more bullish to more bearish for the pair. Instead of focusing on the break above the topside resistance, traders are likely to shift to selling against the topside area (topped at 1.2522ish). Stay below is more bearish.
On the downside, the lower trendline currently comes in around the 1.2455 level (a moving higher. That would be a target on an increase in downside momentum.
The price action may be contingent on other markets including the stock market. It seemed that the Pavlovian reaction is as stocks move down the dollar moved higher. That can switch of course.
Nevertheless, the resistance is the resistance and that creates a risk defining level. Traders can lean against risk defining levels and hope for a rotation against the levels. If the price moves outside the range (i.e. higher), get out.
