The GBPUSD in the London session took out the swing low going back to May 17 at 1.40767, but only by about 5 pips to 1.40726, before reversing higher into the US data. The CPI came in a bit stronger than expected and claims continued its move slowly lower, but the price decline stalled at 1.4083, found buyers and reversed to new highs for the day (taking out the old high for the day at 1.41239 in the process – now close support).
The price has now moved up to retest its 100 hour moving average 1.41459, and 200 hour moving average of 1.41540. Price high just reached in between those levels to 1.41494.
A break above the moving averages should solicit additional buying as traders continue to probe for a high. The 50% midpoint of the move down from last week's high comes in at 1.41609. The high price from Monday's trade reached 1.41901. Yesterday's high price stalled just ahead of that level at 1.4188.
I have been speaking about the 1.4200 level as a key level all week. Recall from last Thursday the price high did reach that level but only to 1.4203. On Friday the high price came in at 1.4200 and found willing sellers. Getting above would have traders looking toward the Feb high at 1.4240. Like at the lows today, that high was broken last week to a new 2021 high, but only by 9 pips before sellers came back in, disappointed the break buyers, and pushed the price lower.
If sellers do lean against the moving averages now, and are successful in pushing the price lower, the old high from the Asian session today came in at 1.41239. Look for that level to try to hold support on a dip. Move back below and a retest of 1.4110 (low from Monday) would be the next downside test target.
Overall, although the price low today did reach the May 17 extreme of 1.40767, the pair still remains mostly within the range since that date and the high price at 1.42493 (from last week). The ups and downs continue for the GBPUSD. The price is near the midpoint of that up and down range and still awaits a bigger break.