The GBPUSD fell below its 100 day MA at 1.3677 (using bid side of the market) earlier today, but did stall right at the March 25 low at 1.36699. The low for the day reached 1.36692 and bounced back higher.
The choppy move back to the upside has returned to an old swing area between 1.37419 and 1.37582. For those following my posts on the choppy GBPUSD this week, that area stalled a lot of failed breaks above and below over the last couple days.
Toward the end of day yesterday, the price move back below that area and did try to stay below (or at least find sellers within the confines of the swing area). That gave sellers a little more confidence (at least the shorts did not get squeezed on a move back above the 1.37582 level). That helped contribute to the selling.
Now with the price back up been with another successful test of the area, will the sellers push lower?
We will see.
The pair for the week moved up on Monday and peaked on Tuesday at 1.3918. The move down on Tuesday closed below its 100 hour moving average (blue line), and that moving average ended up stalling any rallies. On Wednesday, after an initial failed break below its 200 hour moving average, the 2nd move below attracted more selling into that lower swing area (yellow area). That is when the chop intensify for the pair into Thursday. The price action today mimics the down and up choppiness, it is just in a lower area.
With the Up and Down lap completed at the successful test and hold of the low from March 25 today (and support buyers near the 100 day MA as well). That might be it for the selling. We will know more if the aforementioned 1.3741 to 1.3758 area can be broken with momentum (I think). If so, the 100/200 hour MAs (converging at 1.3796 area) would be the next upside targets.