Sometimes the best trade is the simplest one
Occam's razor. While markets are keeping their eye on the yen and equities today, gold continues to outperform as we begin the year with price gaining by another 0.4% on the day so far. The upside move in gold over the past two weeks was very much a quiet but anticipated one:
- Gold is looking good, 'needs to capture the market's imagination again'
- Gold continues to wait for its big break
- Can gold keep up its good run into the new year?
- The big January seasonal trade got started early again
Price now looks to be aiming for a break of the 61.8 retracement level @ $1,286.97. Holding a break above will see a move to test the resistance levels at $1,300 and then the swing region of $1,307 to $1,309.
And so far there isn't much to suggest a major breakdown in the seasonal trade for gold either. Technical levels continue to support an upside move while fundamentally, gold is regaining some allure as a haven trade as well. Not to mention that against the dollar, bullion is starting to look more attractive considering the waning confidence in the global economy (which will impact the US economy negatively) and also the Fed's expected more dovish stance this year.
In terms of downside risks, the 100-hour MA sits at $1,280.32 currently and until that is threatened, the upside momentum/bias is gold still holds in my view. But with basic trading principles, be wary of buying near tops like where we are now.
