Gold tends to start the year strong

If you remember back to this time last year, one word was on the tip of everyone's tongue -- "gold".

In the first trading week of 2016, gold rallied 4.5%. After two weeks of consolidation, the climb then continued and the metal was up 17% by the end of February.

The kind of huge move is an outlier but gold tends to rally early in the year. January has been the best month for the metal since 2000 with an average gain of 2.67% and the rally tends to stretch into February.

What's worrisome for gold is that the chart appears to have broken down below $1200 and there is no significant support until $1050.

But that doesn't mean a bounce could push gold back up to $1200 in the coming weeks before the decline resumes.