Gold sellers are in near-term control, but buyers are not out of the game just yet

Technical Analysis

Author: Justin Low | gold

Gold runs into a test of the 100-hour moving average

Gold H1 12-02
Buyers are attempting a move to recapture some near-term control but so far are finding it tough to break sellers' resolve in the near-term. Price fell back below the 100-hour MA (red line) yesterday and in overnight trading buyers were unable to build on a move to get back above the key level.

As it stands, sellers remain in near-term control until buyers are able to find a way to crack above that. That said, buyers are not totally without any momentum to build on another upside move. Price still holds above the $1,300 handle and that remains key for gold buyers.

Gold D1 12-02
By staying above the figure level, buyers still have a platform of support to build towards another run to the upside again. Not only that, there's also trendline support that stretches back to November that also provides another area for buyers to lean on in case things stumble.

For gold, a lot of the recent action is largely dictated by the fact that the dollar is holding firm over the past two weeks. That has seen gold fall from resistance around $1,326 to current levels. But as long as the figure level still isn't breached, there's still favourable momentum to for gold to continue its upside run since November last year.

However, I wouldn't expect a strong rally like what we saw over the past three months. The greenback's outlook also appears to be more favourable - as other currencies are looking less attractive - so that will temper with any gains seen in gold in the near-term.

If you're asking me, I would expect choppy trading in gold over the next few sessions, basing off the view above. There'll be better opportunities down the road if you're looking for a trending move, so just give it a bit more time to settle.

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