Time to grind the charts

Greg's already stolen some of my thunder and captured levels for both EURUSD and GBPUSD so I'm going to have a look at USDJPY

We do have the potential to see so big reactions so I'm going to keep things as simple as I can and only highlight the levels I'll be looking to trade at as the ones that will hold the biggest sway

Further to my post earlier chatter from trading desks is that risk positions have been reduced to levels that traders are comfortable with and liquidity will be thin up to the announcement and into the presser. Order books are thinning also with traders saying that orders will get filled where they're filled.

Up

  • 122.20/25 is a level that held support after the Oct break to the 123's. It's too close to the price now but could come into play if we break it and then reverse. All the levels I'm looking at I expect to play both ways
  • 122.45/50 another close one but it held some protection of 122.20/25
  • 122.75/80 expect a bit of noise around here but it's still close
  • 123.00 will have natural big figure action, while 123.20/25 was a level we failed to hold onto in that Oct 123.00 run
  • 123.70/75 marked the top of that run so this is one of the stronger levels I'm going to be watching
  • 124.00 speaks for itself. I point them out because the market likes to trade a round number
  • 124.40/45 Another strong looking resistance level. Any break will need to cement itself above it for a push to 125.00
  • 125.00-125.85/126.00 If we're up this high then the news is hawkish and the highs are in danger. A break above could open the door towards 130. It's the last level I'll look to trade the short side from, my line in the sand if I've been scaling in

Down

  • 121.30 doesn't look much on the weekly chart but scale it down to the H4 or H1 and the levels gets some clarity
  • 121.00 Usual rules but within range to be ignored on this event
  • 120.68/75 has been a popular level on both sides this year and although broken over the last few days we couldn't close below
  • 120.20/30 That was the low on Monday and marked support at the end of Oct before the run to 123.00
  • 120.00 is a big fat number
  • 119.65/75 could be a mild sticky patch, 119.50 could be stickier
  • 119.00 down to 118.80 is a strong area of support I'll be watching this side
  • 118.35/40 was where we based directly through the August blow out, followed by 118.00

Here's the daily chart to show most of the levels above. The blue lines are the one's I see being strongest

USDJPY daily

Just over 30 minutes until The Fed Awakens

H/T @victorleonardib