Year-end is a mess for market signals
The top chart I have been watching lately is AUD/USD and in particular the 200-day moving average. It's been a critical resistance level for nearly two years but has finally broken.
Or has it broken?
I hate to draw any conclusions at this time of year because the lack of participation and liquidity can skew anything.
So when is it 'real'? I think it will take a combination of continued gains and a rise above the December high of 0.6864. Even with that, I'd rather wait until the close at the end of the first week of January to declare a victory for the bulls.
That's an agonizingly long wait for what looks like a great setup but late December is no time to be a hero.