Making some sense of the NZDUSD's chop

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | nzdusd

It may be a stretch but I see some extremes.

The NZDUSD price action has been ....well ugly.  It is hard to see any rhyme or reason in the hourly chart below.  Flip a coin and hope you catch a move.

It may be a stretch but I see some extremes.
However, perhaps there is some technical sense that I can make from the price action within "the chop".

Looking at the 2 yellow areas, the top one was a swing area going back to January 21 through February 4. There was a break higher (red circles 3 and 4), that failed. At red circle 5, 6 and 7, the old ceiling was reestablished.  The price moved lower after each of those tests. Sellers were leaning against resistance and benefited from that lean.

Then the period between February 8 and February 16 the ceiling got really ugly. The swing area suddenly became nonexistent. The price chopped above and below the area with no respect to its importance.  No joy.  

This week, however, the old level suddenly came alive again at red circle 8 and 9. Today, the high price stalled right against the area as well. That gives me hope that the level has been reestablished after going rouge for a period of time.

On the downside the lower yellow area highlighted by green circles 1 through 6, is a little less rougish.  The area was a swing high on February 5. The price moved above the level also on February 5 and then used the level as support (see green numbered circles 2, 3, 4, and 5).  Yesterday, the level was broken giving sellers a shot.  

That break did not last long, however, and since the price moved back above that level, there was a retest at green numbered circles 6.  Holding that level, reestablished the lower swing area as a extreme area on the downside. Stay above is more bullish. Traders can lean with a stop below. 

So through the price chops up and down, I think I have unearthed a swing high extreme and a swing low extreme that traders can use to define a range.  

The price currently trades between the levels. So it is still more of a coin flip for the pair.   However, if an extreme is approached (either one), look for traders to lean against the area, until there is a break.  Hopefully, the next break will lead to more of a momentum move that gets the pair outside of this dreaded chop. 

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