33 months in a row below the lifetime midpoint level
In January 1, 1999, the EURUSDs debut price was 1.1795. The price moved up to 1.1860 and then trended lower over the next 20 or so months to the all time low of 0.8225. That low was reached in October 2000.
Over the next 7 plus years the price trended mostly higher with the price reaching a high of 1.6037 in July 2008. The 50% midpoint of that lifetime range for the EURUSD comes in at 1.2131.
In 2008, the world started to go to hell in a hand basket around that time, and the EURUSD started to trend lower, and then back higher. The highs were lower. The lows could not get to that January 1, 1999 starting level at 1.1795. The lowest low until January 2015 stalled at 1.1876 in June 2010. The low in 2012 came in at 1.2041. Those swing lows each made it below the 50% midpoint at 1.2131 but they also were the only two month where the price traded below that midpoint level.
In January 2015, the price finally made a move below the 50% level with momentum. It has been 33 months in a row below the lifetime midpoint level The high this month peaked at 1.20698 - around 62 pips short of the 50% midpoint. We are ending the month around 1.1900 level.
Technically, staying below the 1.2131 level is more bearish.
Another more bearish bias from a longer term perspective, is the 200 month MA is up at 1.23558. Looking back at the 2010 swing low, the price fell below that MA line, but closed above. In 2012, the 200 month MA was at 1.2056. The low bottomed at 1.2041 but once again the break failed. The buyers remained in control.
Finally in December 2014, the price fell and closed the month below the 200 month MA at 1.2231. Since then, the price has not been above the 200 monht MA. A move above is needed to turn the bias more bullish from a longer term perspective.
So although the price of the EURUSD has been up for 6 straight months, the move can be thought of as more corrective from a longer term perspective. A move above the 50% midpoint at 1.2131 would be more bullish. Also a move above 200 month MA at 1.23558 would help the technical bias.
What about looking at the last 3 plus years?
In May 2014, the price peaked at 1.39925. The low in January 2017 reached 1.03395. The 50% of that trend move lower comes in at 1.2166. That is 35 pips higher than the lifetime midpoint range. That is very similar and makes the 1.2131-66 a key technical area going forward. Get above that area and the technical picture will start looking more bullish.
Is there anything bullish that traders can hang a hat on from the perspective of the monthly chart?
- Well there are 6 straight up months. That is nothing to sneeze at.
- The price is closing the month back above the ubiquitous 1.1876 swing low from 2010.
- The price this month is higher than the close from last month at 1.1841
- We are above the January 1999 opening price at 1.1795.
- The swing high from August 2015 comes in at 1.1711. We are trading above that level
- The low from November 2005 comes in at 1.1639.
- The 2016 high came in at 1.16156. The price is above that level.
All those levels are support levels in the new trading month on a move lower. We could base at any one and rocket higher. The opposite is also true. That is get below each and the technical pictures turns progressively more bearish.
SUMMARY: Overall, although the EURUSD is trading higher once again, the pair is just correcting the longer term moves. If the price in the new month can get above the 1.2131-66, the story becomes more bullish. On the downside, watch 1.1876. Watch the 1.1795. Watch 1.1711 and 1.1615. Moves below those levels, weaken the technical picture - step by step.
