The early optimism is gone

NZD/JPY is now in negative territory on the day.

The pair gapped higher at the open and continued to 72.94 but has been in full retreat since and that has continued with a fall into negative territory in the past hour.

What had looked like a break above the June high is starting to look questionable.

The early optimism is gone

The problem remains global growth. JPMorgan is just out with its global manufacturing PMI. It's a composite of all the main national indexes and it's fallen to 49.4 from 49.8. That's the lowest since October 2012.

There is some hope that the China-US trade truce will spark a rebound but there is also worry that Trump will soon blow it up, or that he will turn his focus elsewhere (likely to Europe).

For now, keep a close eye on this chart and on stock markets, which are also sagging after hitting a record at the open.