NZDUSD breaks back below the 200 hour MA

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | nzdusd

Working off the earlier gains for the pair

The NZUDSD in the NY session has been working off the earlier gains as USD buying spilled over into this pair too. The pair is still up 14 or so pips on the day at 0.6631, but it reached as high as 0.66646.  So more than half of the gains have been retraced.  

Working off the earlier gains for the pair
Looking at the 5 minute chart above, at the highs for the day, the price tried to extend above a topside trend line but failed (bearish clue #1).  The price ultimately fell below the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour (overlayed at 0.66549 - bearish clue #2), and then below the 100 bar MA on the 5-minute and trend line at 0.6645 (bearish clue #3).  

What now?

Well the price has just dipped below the 200 hour MA at 0.66324 and the 38.2% of the move up from the low yesterday at 0.66335 (bearish clue #4).  

The next target is the 100 hour MA at 0.66256.  A move below those levels and the pair will look to retrace the entire move higher (to 0.6618). 

Overall, the day has been a tale of two moves.  The first move higher stalled after a failed break above a topside trend line and the 100 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart. 

The 2nd move (in progress) saw the technicals weaken as levels were methodically taken out on the move back to the downside.  

In the process the sellers have taken back some control from the buyers. A move back below the 100 hour moving average would weaken the picture even more and strengthen the sellers resolve. 

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