The swing area between 0.69803 and 0.69928 looms above. The 200 below at 0.69632 has action above and below in the US session
The NZDUSD moved lower in the Asian session after attempts to move above the MA level found sellers. The move to the downside saw the pair fall toward the 100 hour MA (blue line) currently at 0.69193, but found early buyers against the support moving average level.
The price has subsequently moved back to the upside, erasing the earlier declines and extending back above the 200 hour MA (green line). The rise stalled ahead of a swing area between 0.69803 to 0.69928. It also stalled right near the 38.2% of the move down from the September trading range at 0.69763.
It would take a move above those levels to open the door for further gains. If those levels are broken, the 50% of the same September range comes in at 0.70132. The 100 day MA is at 0.70409. Traders will be eyeing those levels for additional bullish clues on breaks.
If instead sellers pushed price back below the 200 hour moving average with momentum, the 100 hour moving average at 0.69193 will be the key barometer for a more bearish bias.
The RBNZ is meeting in the new trading day and is expecting to tighten by 0.25% to 0.50% from 0.25%. The pace of the tightening is up the air however.
We don't think lingering restrictions in New Zealand will derail tightening plans again, but may warrant more gradual rate increases than previously signalled by the RBNZ. For now, we think the Bank will leave all options open and NZD should moderately benefit from the rate hike this week
That uncertainty going forward might lead to a "buy the rumour, sell the fact" price reaction. If so, traders will be watching the aforementioned resistance target near the 50% midpoint and the 100 day moving average for technical clues. If the price can't get above, the buyers/longs may give up and liquidate to the downside instead.