The trade data dipped into a deficit
The trade data out of NZD was expecting no change. It came in with a deficit of -566M. The prior month's surplus was revised to 596M from 640M. So for the two months, the data is nearly unchanged.
The data, however, has tipped the price to the downside.The NZDUSD has moved below the 50% of the February trading range. That level comes in at 0.7306. The price has traded down to 0.7299. That is down from 0.7316 before the number.
To be honest, the pair is not exactly tumbling, but there is more bearishness. IN addition to being below the 50% retracement, the price is moving away from the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above) at 0.73209.
The NY (and London) session low came in at 0.7297. A move below that level opens up the downside for a potential look toward 0.7275. That is the 61.8 of the February higher, and also near swing lows from Friday and the Asian Pacific session on Monday.
Risk remains at the 50% (close risk - give it a few pips though). Wider risk for shorts is the 100 hour MA and the channel trend line at 0.73203 (and moving lower).
