NZDUSD is the weakest of the major currency pairs

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | nzdusd

The NZDUSD pair is a down around 1% on the day

The RBNZ kept rates unchanged and expressed:
  • the willingness to do more if necessary, will monitor and review
  • downside risks persist for the economy
  • the NZD strength is a negative for NZ exporters.
Technically, the pair moved down and tested its 100 and 200 hour moving average on the headlines and bounced.  However as the European session and got underway the price was able to crack below the 100 and 200 hour moving averages (currently at 0.6450 – 52). The price has remained below those moving averages since that time. Stay below keeps the sellers more in control. 

We are currently trading just above the low for the day at 0.6420.  More weakness will look toward the recent swing low seen over the last few weeks of trading including 0.6412 (low from June 16), the natural swing low level at 0.6400, the swing low from June 12 at 0.6393, and the low from Monday at 0.63783. That low was the lowest level since June 3. 

Taking a broader look at the daily chart below, the 200 day moving average currently comes in at 0.63162 and would be a target on the downside on more weakness (see daily chart below). Just above that is the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the May low at 0.6330. They would be the next targets and the minimum targets if the sellers are to keep the pressure on the downside..  

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