The NZDUSD rallied strongly yesterday after the RBNZ was bit less dovish after their interest rate decision. The price shot higher and extended above its 200 hour moving average and 100 day moving average. However, it ran into the 38.2% retracement at 0.64874. That is of the move down from the January 16 high. There was a limit to the rally. The price rotated lower and closed back below it's 100 day MA
Today, the pair cracked below its lower 200 hour moving average (green line currently at 0.64448) on the coronavirus numbers from China, but has since recovered.
That recovery however, has had its limits. The 100 day moving average at 0.64669 was tested in the London morning session. The price stalled and move back to the 200 hour moving average at 0.64448.
In the New York session, the price has again moved back higher to test the same 100 day moving average. The high price reached 0.64653 just below the 0.64669 moving average level. Once again the price stalled and has rotated back lower.
So most of the gain from yesterday has been maintained, and roughly the 200 hour moving average is holding support. However the 100 day moving average is also putting a ceiling on the price action to the upside. There is a limit. A battle is on between the buyers and the sellers
It will take a break either above the 100 day moving average or below the 200 hour moving average to decide the winner of the battle. Admittedly the sellers below the 200 hour moving average have had their opportunities, and could not sustain momentum. Does that give the buyers the edge? If it does, the proof will still be in the pudding. That is can the 200 hour moving average hold support? Can the price get and stay above its 100 day moving average? Look for traders to lean on the dip and retest of the 200 hour moving average, but don't expect them to stay long if there is a break lower.