A little bounce off the 100 day moving average
The NZDUSD has continued its trend to the downside this week. Looking at the 4 hour chart, the high for the week was in the 1st bar (gapped from Friday too). The pair reached new week lows today at 0.64532.
That low did breached below its 100 day moving average at 0.64566 by 3 or so pips, but the price has rebounded marginally to 0.6464 currently (the high just reached 0.6471). The fundamental driver this week is of course the coronavirus scare. The number of deaths is up to 213 with infected over 10,000 now.
Nevertheless, there seems to be some buyers against its 100 day moving average (profit takers). Stay above and the dip buyers have some hope. Move below and there should be further downside momentum with 0.6436. The 61.8% retracement of the move up from the October 2019 low comes in at 0.64139.
If there is a balance, getting back above the 50% retracement at 0.6479, the underside of the broken trend line at 0.6489 (and moving higher) and the 100 day moving average at 0.65044 are still hurdles that could prove to be troublesome.
Traders also have to take into consideration the risks into the weekend from increased deaths, infected, and spreading geographically. That should keep a lid on the pair on rallies.
