NZD/USD sees post-RBNZ gains tempered by renewed virus fears

Technical Analysis

Author: Justin Low | nzdusd

The kiwi trades lower today after a solid performance yesterday

NZD/USD D1 13-02
The pair made a run up to test the 100-day MA (red line) yesterday but fell short of holding a break of the level as buyers ran out of steam towards the end of the day.

The run higher also met resistance around 0.6467-80 and that also helped to give sellers an area to lean on to prevent a major test of the 0.6500 level.

But as we see coronavirus fears return to the market, it is putting pressure on risk and the kiwi has been marked lower to start trading today. Looking at the near-term chart:

NZD/USD H1 13-02
The push lower was defended by the 50.0 retracement level of the recent move higher around 0.6433 but buyers also kept the pace up by holding the 200-hour MA (blue line).

And price is still trading above that for now as buyers are hoping to try and maintain the more bullish near-term bias, in order to retest the key resistance levels above.

As such, it is still a bit of a push and pull in the pair right now as sellers need to break back below the key hourly moving averages at 0.6445 and 0.6420 respectively in order to retest the 0.6400 level.

Meanwhile, the challenge for buyers is to stay above that and to try and move back towards a test of the 100-day MA @ 0.6479 but more importantly the 0.6500 handle.

From a fundamental perspective, I don't think the market has quite come to terms with the full impact of the coronavirus outbreak still but we'll see how things develop in the coming days/weeks.

For now though, just watch for any shifts in the risk mood ahead of the weekend as that will dictate near-term trading sentiment.

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