Trades at the lowest level since May 29, 2016

Looking at the weekly chart below, the NZDUSD is trading at the lowest level since May 2016. That is a long time ago. Earlier this week, the price also moved below the 50% of the move up from the 2015 low at 0.68123 and then the low from 2017 at 0.67795. That is more bearish. The low today has reached 0.6748 so far. If the price is to go higher from here, those broken levels need to be taken back.

With the bearish picture, is there a reason to think about buying?

If you look at the hourly chart below, the pair is down testing a lower trend line at 0.6745. Will the buyers/profit takers be tempted to stick a toe in the water against the area? Risk can be defined and limited against the level. Stay above and all is ok. Move below and exit.

The RBNZ kept rates unchanged at the start of the trading day, and they look to keep rates unchanged for an extended period of time. That has been a weight on the pair (along with US rate rises). However, that does not mean there can not be a corrective move, but risk must be defined as the pair is in a trend move lower too.

We will see if the buyers test the water OR does the trend continue on a break?