WTI crude oil is down $2.00 to $48.81 to start the week.

The theme in the market is supply. It began on Friday when the Baker Hughes rig count fell by only 38, compared to the six-week average of 75. It continued with Libya revealing that oil fields in the eastern part of the country resumed pumping as a pipeline reopened. Non-OPEC producer Oman also revealed it is boosting output as much as possible.

For all the declines in crude prices, supply continues to flow. US production is expected to continue increasing until mid-year and traditional producers haven't pulled back. It's very difficult to draw a line under prices with supply exceeding global demand.

Technically, the bounce looks like it's over. There was no reason it couldn't have squeezed higher but now there is a clear top just above $54 and the series of higher lows in February has given way.