Pound slides on UK retail sales slump

Technical Analysis

Author: Justin Low | gbpusd

UK retail sales failed to show growth for five consecutive months despite Black Friday sales, the longest stretch since ONS records began in 1996

GBP/USD H1 17-01
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The data was largely disappointing and has driven the pound lower on the day with cable now falling to fresh lows just under 1.3050 from about 1.3110 beforehand.

Notably, price is challenging a break of the 200-hour MA (blue line) as sellers threaten to capture some near-term control. This will be the key level to watch out for at the moment.

In the rates market, traders are pricing in a ~74% chance of the BOE cutting its bank rate by 25 bps later this month now. That is up from ~60% from before the data release.

The real fear now for the pound is if the economic struggle continues to reverberate well into the new year. That might just be the trigger to get the BOE to consider more rate cuts beyond the one that they are already likely to deliver on 30 January.

If markets start to see it that way too, I reckon we could start seeing cable moving towards 1.2800 at the very least next.

For now though, keep an eye on the near-term support levels above with the 100-hour MA (red line) resting @ 1.3025. Those will be key intraday levels to watch ahead of the weekend.

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