S&P index tries to stay above the 50% retracement level as buyers push on increased hope

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | sp

50% retracement from the all-time high comes in at 2792.69 for the S&P index.

The S&P index moved above its 50% retracement of the move down from the all-time record high reached in February to the March 23 low. The midpoint comes in at 2792.69. The market price has traded above and below that level today with a low at 2776.99 and a high at 2813.07.  We currently trade just off that high price at around 2809 (and above the 50% level).  Buyers remain in control.

50% retracement from the all-time high comes in at 2792.69 for the S&P index.
On a move higher, the next targets would be the February 28 low price at 2855.84 followed by the swing high price from March 11 at 2882.23. The 61.8% retracement of the move down comes in at 2934.49 and would be another upside target should support hold and other targets breached.

Taking a broader look at the daily chart, there is closer resistance against the August 2019 swing low at 2822.12. The swing low from 2019 was at 2855.94. That level is right near the February 28, 2020 low price of 2855.84 (from the hourly chart).  Needless to say, that combination will be key on further upside momentum.

The S&P index on the daily chart
The market is being supported by the flattening of the coronavirus curve as a result of stay-at-home discipline, and subsequent hopes that the 16 million jobs lost over the last 3 weeks will start to slow and eventually see workers returning to work at some point.  

The market is also rising as a result of the commitment by the Fed to supply liquidity to literally all financial markets (either directly or indirectly). Bank and financial stocks are all outpacing index gains with Wells Fargo up 10.42%, J.P. Morgan up 9.09% and Citigroup up 7.9%.  Deutsche Bank is lagging with a 2.37% gain (they are a different story being in Europe and with capital and loan quality problems).


Bank stocks are all outpacing the market gains
Finally, although the OPEC developments and price action are underwhelming so far with crude oil prices back below the $26 level (the high reached $28.36), if dynamics of production cuts, and people going back to work materialize (it still is a big "if"), a rebound would be in order from the sharply lower levels seen as a result of the Oil War between Russia and Saudi Arabia. That would be a net positive for the oil industry (in the US and globally) which has been decimated as a result of the plunge in oil prices
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