Down 26 to 2053 area.
The S&P index is now down on the year (it fell into negative territory last week but recovered). The year end close was 2058.90. The index is also back below the 200 day MA at the 2078.16 today. The market has been toying with a close below this key MA, but has not been successful on the 3 prior dips below the key level in trading this month. Today's move has some momentum though. Today might be the day.
The broad stock index has been going sideways since mid Feb, with a low in March at 2039.69 and the high at 2134.72 in May. The non trending nature of the market begs for a move. Is this move lower going to lead to break outside the range on the downside? That is the path of least resistance at the moment and the technicals support it for now.
Staying below the 200 day MA will be eyed now by traders. Closer resistance will be the close from last year (why not).
On a break of the lows, the next target will be 38.2% of the move up from October at 2014.75. The 50% of the same move higher comes in at 1977.69. Both are doable of course. A move to the 50% would imply a 7.32% correction off the July highs.
Just for giggles, a 10% correction off the July high would take the the S&P to the 1920 area. Not saying it will go there, but we have not had a flushing in a while and the stock market did not react as usual to the expectations the Fed might remain on hold for longer. Concerns about China, the dollar impact on earnings, and the economy down the road, may be weighing on the market.
