Technical look at the major currency pairs into the new trading week

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | eurusd

What the hourly chart and price action is saying.

EURUSD: The low on Friday extended to the low of the swing area and just above the 200 hour MA . In the new week, a move below the 200 hour MA increases the bearish bias for the pair  as the dip buyers against support give up. If there is a bounce, the FLOOR area at 1.018-262 (see yellow area) is now a ceiling. Expect sellers there.

What the hourly chart and price action is saying.
GBPUSD. In the NY session on Friday, the GBPUSD tried to stay below the 1.21842 (50% of the week's trading range). The price spiked above the level, but could not get above other topside target including the channel trend line and 200 and 100 hour MA. Sellers returned. For last week, the corrective high reached on Tuesday could only reach the 38.2% of the move down from the April 30 high. That makes the correction a plain-vanilla variety. Seller more in control still. with the pair trading just above the 61.8% at 1.2589 and the lower channel trend line.

USDJPY: The USDJPY tried to move back above the 100 hour MA (blue line) on Friday, only to fail. Earlier in the day, the price fell below the 200 hour MA (green line), but held a developing FLOOR at 107.327. If the price it to go higher, get and stay above the 100 hour MA and the falling trend line. The price since the high on Tuesday, had progressively lower highs. If not, the 200 hour MA and the floor (most of last week's trading was above that floor) becomes the downside target to get below (and stay below). The buyers and sellers are battling between the levels until the next shove above or below the respective resistance/support levels.

USDCAD: On Friday, the USDCAD moved above a cluster of support from 1.3999 to 1.4007 and has done a good job of staying above that area for the London/NY day. However the move above the 61.8% at 1.4035 failed. The price moved lower into the close on Friday and settled right around the 1.4000 level - the cluster area (see yellow area in the chart below). That area is the barometer for the bulls and bears this week (50%, swing area, 200 hour MA). Move above is bullish. Move below is bearish. It is as simple as that.

AUDUSD: On Friday, the seek ended by moving lower and retesting the Tuesday low, 1200 hour MA(green line at 0.65026) and 50% retracement of the move up from the May 15 low at 0.65084. Buyers entered and the price rebounded. However, the price does remain below the 100 hour MA above at 0.65516.  So the pair trades between the 100 hour MA above and the 200 hour MA below, and it will take a move above or below the respective areas to swing the bias.

NZDUSD: The NZDUSDs high for the week stalled at/near the May 11 high at 0.6157 area. The price has chopped lower with the price today moving below the 100 hour MA at 0.60978 (that MA is rising). Sellers took back some control from the buyers below the 100 hour MA. If the price can stay below the 38.2% at 0.6066, the 200 hour MA at 0.60484 and 50% at 0.60386 are targets.


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