The bond market may not offer much else before Thanksgiving but it will remain a focus point after

Technical Analysis

Author: Justin Low | bonds

10-year Treasury yields on the verge of a breakout?

USGG10YR
Treasury sellers will certainly have a lot to think about this Thanksgiving holiday as yields are on the cusp of a potential technical breakout to the topside.

The trendline resistance for 10-year yields at around 1.68% is keeping a lid on action so far on the week and may perhaps stay that way until the holiday period is over.

There is added resistance around the 1.75% level but one can argue that we are seeing a sort of head-and-shoulders pattern formed at the moment and a break of the "neck" could see yields run higher towards the 200-day moving average (blue line) next.

The inflation debate isn't going to be resolved any time soon but so far, the inflationistas are enjoying their day in the sun as recent data points are validating their argument and the Fed is beginning to cave to market pricing on rates.

A key consideration in all of this is also what exactly is the market trying to say about the Fed's next policy step i.e. is a policy accident on the cards?

There's plenty to ponder about and we may not get any new clues before Thanksgiving. However, a slew of US data later today as well as the FOMC meeting minutes release could be a trigger for a move so keep an eye out for that in the session ahead.
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