The USD is a little lower
The CHF is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as traders prepare for the key FOMC decision, and equally as important, the projections for rates, growth, inflation and employment. The cut probability iis only 23% for today but that rises sharply for the July 31 meeting. The dot plot, since it's inception in 2012, has never showed an instance where Fed officials expect lower rates in the future. That may change today. The USD is mixed but mostly lower with declines vs the CHF, GBP, EUR and JPY and small gains vs the NZD, AUD and CAD. Also released today will be Canada CPI, and US oil inventories. The expectationis for inventories is for a draw of -1250K for crude oil. The privata data late yesterday, showed a draw of -812K
The GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF are seeing the most action with ranges of 46, 38, and 46 pips respectively. The EURUSD is miredd in a 21 pip range for the day. The USDCAD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD are even lower at 18 and 19 pips. The JPY crosses are mixed as well whih EURJPY and GBPJPY higher now (they were lower) adn AUDJPY, NZDJPY and CADJPY lower (they were higher in up and down trading)
In other markets:
- Spot gold is down -$2.84 or -0.22% at $1343.79
- WTI crude oil is up $0.06 or +0.11 at $53.95
The pre-market for US stocks are showing modest gains implied by the futures:
- Dow up 43 points
- Nasdaq up 17 points
- S&P up 4 points
In the European stock markets, the major indices are mixed:
- German Dax, unchanged
- France's CAC, unchanged
- UK's FTSE, -0.3%
- Spain's Ibex, -0.3%
- Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.3%
In the US debt market, yields have recovered a bit from yesterday's decline. The two-year is currently of 2.6 basis points while the 30 year is up 1.3 basis points.
In the European debt market the benchmark 10 year yields are mostly higher off low levels. The German 10 year moved to a low of -0.317% today but is currently at -0.289%, up 3.1 basis points.
