The EURUSD moved modestly higher in Asian trading but could not extend above the high from Friday at 1.21889 (the high reached 1.2183 today). The pair lost momentum after the weaker than expected German IFO data.
The price fell back below the close from Friday at 1.2170 and the broken 38.2% at 1.21658. The move lower reached down to retest the rising 100 hour MA (blue line) and the 200 hour MA (green line) at 1.2145 and 1.21331 respectively. There is also a swing area between 1.21315 and 1.21364. The low price reached 1.21395 and bounced modestly.
IF the sellers are to take more control, moving back below that cluster of support would tilt the bias more to the downside.Moving below would have traders targeting the lower swing lows from last week including 1.2113 (a swing low from and Thursday and 1.2075) a swing low from Wednesday's trade. The low price from last week reached down to 1.20529 on Monday.
Last week, ECB Lagarde said after the rate decision that "FX appreciation is a drag on inflation". Apart from being a truism, she was also speaking to the current value of the EUR. The IFO data and concerns about growth going forward, has the pair moving back lower today. However, there still is work to be done technically to tilt the bias more to the downside from that perspective. Until then, the battle between the buyers and sellers continue.