The GBPUSD has taken the path of least resistance. Down but modestly.
The price is back below the 100 hour MA
The GBPUSD has taken the path of least resistance - by moving lower on the back of the failed vote on the time table proposed by the governement.
Technically, the price has spent most of the time post the vote below its 100 hour moving average at 1.2901 level. We currently trade at 1.28727. The low extended to 1.2861. That level is the new week low for the pair.
Traders will likely now look to the 100 hour moving average as resistance. Stay below is more bearish. Move above and the waters become muddy.
The 1.2838 is a low price from Friday and a target on the downside. A better target would be the rising 200 hour moving average which currently trades at 1.27555 (and moving higher). The price moved above its 200 hour moving average back on October 10 at around the 1.2283 level.
With the uncertainty, I would be surprised for some backfilling of the move higher (i.e. a move lower). That move higher took the price up about 810 pips from the October 8 low in about 9 trading days.
However, I would not there would be a rout lower. The legislators did pass the Brexit agreement. They did not pass the timetable for that agreement. Can they get on with it? Or will there be delays.
Remember this is just moving to the end of a new beginning where there will be further transitinos and deals with the EU. If this was hard, that too will be a bear.