The GBPUSD price action has been volatile, choppy and with a larger than normal range. The low to high pip range is 225 pips. That is well above the 22 day average at 126 pips (around a month of trading). Not surprising.
The price of the pair squeezed higher in early trading as the early results favored Biden. The high extended above a swing area between 1.30738 to 1.3082 on the way to a high at 1.31388.
That run was quickly reversed. The run lower fell below the 50% and then tested that level before moving to the day's session low. The low stalled within a swing area above recent lows in the 1.2910 to 1.2918 area (see red numbered circles).
The run back higher got back above the 50% but stalled near the 61.8% at 1.30527. The pair is back below the 50%.
Holding the 61.8% and trading back below the 50% tilts the bias down. The price is also below the 200 hour MA at 1.2588. The next target is the 100 hour MA at 1.29517. The price is approaching that level and a move below would tilt the bias more to the downside.
Now...there is a long way to do in the vote counting and swings can be random. We saw the bias go to dollar selling on Biden and dollar buying on Trump. Now as Biden takes the lead in Michigan, the GBPUSD is going lower (dollar buying).
The disconnect, reminds us to pay attention to the technical levels. Right now the 200 hour MA, 50% and 61.8% are upside targets. Getting below the 100 hour MA and going for the swing area at 1.2910 to 1.2918 are the lower targets that hopefully will give clues for traders.