Range for the week <100 pips (that's not a lot). Look for a range extension
The GBPUSD this week has seen ups and downs and ups and downs again. Today the pair had a down into the NY opening BUT traders came in against a trend line on the hourly and the pair is trying to recover some of the declines. The price is back above the 100 hour MA at 1.2749. That is a close risk for buyers. The trend line is down at 1.2730 (and moving higher). Stay above and the buyers are trying to keep control. Move below and the bullish technical hopes, fail.
What is of interest this week is the low to high trading range is less than 100 pips. The low for the week came in a 1.2705. There is a nice floor there with a number of successful tests. ON the tops side the 1.27965-1.2803 area has stalled the rallies on Tuesday, Wednesday and again early today.
The average trading range over the last 22 trading days for the GBPUSD is 116 pips. The 98 pip trading range for 4-days is extraordinarily low. To give you an idea, if the range stayed the same through Friday, it would represent the lowest trading range since August 2014 (see chart below). I don't expect that string to be broken.
What does that mean?
I expect that the chances are the range will be extended before the end of the week. The question comes is it higher or lower?
The pair held support trend line and above the lower floor. The price is back above the 100 hour MA. All are a little more bullish. The sellers had a shot today. They could not keep the run lower. Stay above the aforementioned levels will be eyed. If it fails, you gotta think the lower extreme might be the path of least resistance.
