Flight to safety flows
As stocks continue their declines today on US-China, political problems in UK and US, anxiety from EU elections, etc., the flows in the forex are toward the safety themes. The JPY is the strongest, followed by the CHF and the USD. The CAD is the weakest (helped by crude falling another 1.7%- and below the 200 day MA), followed by weakness in the GBP (for obvious political reasons).
Looking at the snapshot of the ranges and changes, the overall activity remains spotty and limited. The EURUSD has a 22 day average range of 49 pips but can only reach 57% of that with a 28 pip range. The USDCHF has only a 18 pip range (its low 22 day range is 46 pips). The AUDUSD and NZDUSD have ranges of 18 and 16 respectively, well below their 22-day averages of 45 and 42 pips. What is interesting is that some Fed governors (and other central bankers) have been saying that "global headwinds" are slowing, but are they really? Flash PMI data in Europe, and German IFO data were less than stellar today.
The snapshot of other markets are showing:
- Spot gold is higher by $3.80 or 0.31% at $1277.23
- WTI crude oil is down -$1 or -1.63% at $60.42. That takes the price just below its 200 day MA at $60.46 to day. A close below would be more negative technically.The price has not traded below that MA since April 1
- Bitcoin is trading down -$234 on Coinbase at $7596
In the pre-market for US stocks, future are implying a lower open:
- Dow, -240 points
- S&P, -25 points
- Nasdaq, -91 points
In Europe, major indices are lower:
- German Dax, -1.60%
- France's CAC -1.58%
- UK's FTSE -1.24%
- Spain's Ibex, -1.13%
- Italy's FTSE MIB, -1.58%
US yields are moving lower on flight to safety flows:
European 10 year yields are also mostly lower (Italy is the exception). The German 10 year is down -1.8 bps and trades at -0.104% now.
