The NZD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | forex

USD is weaker ahead of data today

The NZD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the North American traders enter for the day. The USD is weaker with declines vs all the major pairs with the exception of the JPY (a small rise on the day).   The EUR has moved off low levels after the minutes of the last meeting showed the ECB was concerned about the efficacy of the current policy and that they saw solid upward trend in underlying inflation if holiday costs were ex'd out.  There will be a data dump today in the US with Philly Fed business outlook, Import/export prices, retail sales, jobless claims, business inventories and NAHB housing market index also to be released this morning.  The retail sales will be the main focus (at 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT - estimate +0.3% versus 0.2% last month). 

USD is weaker ahead of data today  
The NZDUSD high the low trading range is near its 22 day average today (see charts below) but that range is only about 40 pips. The EURUSD has a 28 pip range, the USDJPY is only 20 pips, and the USDCAD is even smaller at 16 pips.  The GBPUSD also has a modest range vs its 22 day average but trades near highs of the day. The pair is also trading just below the 200 hour MA at 1.30664. The pair did trade above the moving average level (1st time since January 8), but could not sustain momentum (at least for now - key level).

The ranges and changes for the major currency pairs
In other markets, the snapshot is showing:
  • Spot gold is trading down $0.08 or -0.5% at $1555.50
  • WTI crude oil futures are trading down $0.11 or -0.17% at $57.70
In the premarket for US stocks, the futures are implying higher openings (the Dow and S&P closed at record levels yesterday).
  • S&P index +13.95 points
  • NASDAQ index +49.58 points
  • Dow +108.33 points
In the European equity markets:
  • German DAX, -0.2%
  • France's CAC, -0.2%
  • UK's FTSE 100, -0.5%
  • Spain's Ibex, unchanged
  • Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.1%
In the US debt market, yields are little changed in early trading:

US yields are marginally lower
In the European debt market yields for the benchmark 10 year issues are negative on the day:

European yields are negative on the day

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