Moves back toward the 50% and key swing area
The NZDUSD is bucking the trend vs the USD today. Whereas the EUR and GBP are higher, the NZD is lower vs the greenback. Hurting the kiwi, was ANZ business confidence which plummeted to -39.3 from -10.1 last month. It was the lowest reading since March of 2009 when it equaled that same level.
The fall took the price to a a low price of 0.6833. The current price is trading at 0.6844. The fall got within 16 pips of a key downside level at 0.6817.
The level - on the weekly chart below - was a swing low from back in May and again in October during the October 22 and 29th weeks. It is also near the 505 retracement at 0.68123.
This month, the pair has breached the level during the last two calendar weeks, but could not sustain the momentum.
Needless to say, a retest of the level between 0.68123-17 will be key for the bullish/bearish bias. Stay above and the buyers hold on to the potential bounce up toward the 0.7000 area. Move below and I am not sure the 3rd break, will be the charm. We should see more selling. Be aware.
Close risk for traders now?
Drilling to the 5 minute chart below, the 38.2%-50% retracement of the move lower today comes in at 0.6853-599 area. The 100 bar MA on the chart (blue line) is moving lower and toward that level. That MA has been a ceiling over the near term. Stay below and the sellers remain in firm control.
