May 3, 2017. The CHF is the strongest. The

As the North America traders enter for the day, the CHF is the strongest, while the AUD is the weakest. The AUD was influenced by the action in the neighboring NZD. Despite much better than expected employment data, the NZDUSD rallied and then tumbled. The AUD followed their downward fall. Concerns about China were also apparent. For the CHF, it had a weird trading day yesterday, breaking lower, then retracing the fall, followed by another fall by the close. All of that occurred in the NY afternoon session. Today, the CHF continued to move higher (it is up against all the majors), but the gains are off the highs.

As far as volatility today, the EURUSD is still stuck in the mud with a 30 pip trading range. There are a lot of option expires between 1.0900 and 1.0925 (see MIke's post here). That may be contributing to the confined range (it tends to try to settle near the strikes). Earlier, there was a new week high, but it is trading back toward the low.

The AUDUSD is outside it's 22 day range, as is the NZDUSD (influenced by the employment report). They are the most volatile pairs, at least relative to the 22 day averages (about a month of trading). USDJPY is trading in a narrow 27 pip range but has traded mostly above the 112.00 level.

ADP just came in at 177k vs 175K estimate. The prior month was revised to 255K from 263K. Remember, the private sector employment report last month from the BLS came in at 89K. The big difference remains. The US employment report will be released on Friday with the NFP estimates around 180K.

Other news today include

  • Markit PMI Services at 52.5 (final release).
  • ISM Non Manufacturing for April 55.8 vs 55.2 last
  • DOE oil inventories are also due at 10:30 AM ET.
  • FOMC decision at 2 PM. No change expected. No presser. Will the Fed communicate more about balance sheet plan or will details come out when the Fed Vice Chair and Chair speak publically on Friday?
  • Earnings today include Facebook, Tesla, Yum! Brands (came out at $0.65 vs $0.59), Fitbit, Square, AIG, Clorox

In other markets:

  • Spot gold is trading at $1254.86, down -$0.49 or -0.03%
  • WTI crude oil is higher to $47.90, up $0.24. The inventory data will be released today
  • US stock futures are lower with the S&P -3.75 points, Nasdaq futures down -14.75 and Dow futures down -16 points
  • US 2 year yield is up 0.8 bp to 1.265%, 5 year yield is up 0.8 bp to 1.8125%, 10 year yield is up 0.7 bp to 2.289% and 30 year 2.971%, unchanged on the day