With a drill down into the closer picture....

America is voting and the picture looks like a Clinton victory but nothing is a guarantee. That puts the market on alert, and often times in such an environment the buyers and sellers take the price and put it between risk defining levels.

Looking at the USDJPY weekly chart, it seems the market has done just that.

The last major swing low occurred in October 2011 at the 75.318 level. The last major swing high occurred in May of 2015 at 125.85. The 50% midpoint of that move comes in at 100.584. I look at that level as our floor. Go below it and stay below would be more bearish.

What about on the topside?

Looking again at the weekly chart, the 200 week moving average comes in at 108.32. Since June 12, the price has moved and closed below the 200 week MA each week. During the week of July 17, the price moved above the level but reversed. the following week, the price used the MA as resistance.

Those are the wide levels through the election

200 week MA = 108.32

50% retracement = 100.58

Can we go there today?

At 104.81 we are 351 pips away to reach 108.32. To get to 100.58 we are 423 pips It would be a big day for sure, but over time, the election vote may start a trend.

What levels are in play closer in?

Drilling down to the daily chart we are also in between technical levels of importance to traders.

  • On the topside the 200 day MA is at 106.784 (green line in the chart below). The 50% retracement of the move down from the March high is also at that area.
  • On the downside, the 100 day MA at 102.813 (blue line) was tested last week (before the weekend spike back higher on the back of the FBI email decision).

On a Clinton victory a move higher could see:

  • That 200 day MA and 50% retracement as a key target at 106.78.
  • A move above that key area opens the upside with other targets at 107.48 (high from July) and then
  • The 200 week MA at 108.32.

Before the 200 106.78 level, a move above the topside trend line at 105.40 (see daily chart) will turn the bias more bullish.

On a Trump victory,

  • a move below the 100 day MA at 102.81 would start a further fall with the
  • 100.58 level something to shoot for again.
  • Below 100.58, the market will probe recent lows at 99.98/100.00
  • 99.50: Low from August and the
  • Brexit low at 99.02.

Below that and we are off to the races lower.