With the NAFTA clock ticking the USDMXN turns lower

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | usdmxn

Backed off from swing high area

The USDMXN reached the highest  level since March 2017 yesterday, and the clock is ticking down for the NAFTA agreement (with the hopes slipping away), but the USDMXN has reversed lower and showing some bearish technical clues (but it still has some work to do).


Looking at the daily chart above, the high yesterday reached 19.9316. That took out the high from December at 19.90621, and other swing highs  going back to September 2016 (see red circles in chart above). That should have sent the price higher. It did not. The price reversed lower.

Drilling to the hourly chart below,  there is a reason why the price peaked yesterday where it did.  Looking at the chart, the high stalled at the upside trend line and sellers leaned and sold (see red circles on the chart below).  Risk was defined and limited

Today the price has been up and down but the price has moved below a lower trend line at 19.6519. That too is more bearish and a risk level now for shorts. Stay below keeps the bears in control.  

So there are some bearish signals.

Having said that, it is still not full steam ahead to the downside technically.  

The correction lower has stalled ahead of the 50% of the move up from last weeks low, and is also still above the 100 and 200 hour MAs at 19.4751 and 19.49867.  If the price is going lower, those levels need to be broken.  If so, that would be more bearish for the pair.


SUMMARY

The USDMXN is showing some signs that a top may be in place. However, there is more work to be done and there is event risk from NAFTA negotiations.  

Nevertheless, get below the 50% and then the 100 and 200 hour MAs, and there is more potential.  Until then, the dip and the upcomiing support, may also just be a place to stick a bid in (with a stop below).  

The good news is the levels are in place. 

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